Publications funded by NIA Grant P01 AG032952


Sneha Kannan, Joseph Dov Bruch, Zirui Song. Changes in Hospital Adverse Events and Patient Outcomes Associated With Private Equity Acquisition. JAMA. 2023 Dec 26;330(24):2365-2375.

 doi: 10.1001/jama.2023.23147. PMCID: PMC10751598. PubMed.

Marta Fernandes, Haoqi Sun, Zeina Chemali, Shibani S Mukerji, Lidia M V R Moura, Sahar F Zafar, Akshata Sonni, Alessandro Biffi, Jonathan Rosand, M Brandon Westover.  Brain health scores to predict neurological outcomes from electronic health records. Int J Med Inform. 2023 Dec:180:105270. doi: 10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2023.105270. Epub 2023 Oct 24. PMID: 37890202; NIHMSID: NIHMS1943021. PMCID in process.

David M. Levine, Jeffrey Souza, Jeffrey L. Schnipper, Thomas C. Tsai, Bruce Leff, Bruce E. Landon. Acute Hospital Care at Home in The United States: The Early National Experience. Ann Intern Med (Forthcoming). NIHMSID: 1953359. PMCID in progress.

Zarek  Brot-Goldberg, Timothy Layton, Boris Vabson, and Adelina Yanyue Wang. The Behavioral Foundations of Default Effects: Theory and Evidence from Medicare Part D. Am Econ Rev. 2023 Oct;113(10):2718-2758. doi: 10.1257/aer.20210013. PMCID: PMC10735255. PubMed. Full Code.

Timothy S. Anderson, John Z. Ayanian, Vilsa E. Curto, Eran Politzer, Jeffrey Souza, Alan M. Zaslavsky, Bruce E. Landon. Changes in the Use of Long-Term Medications Following Incident Dementia Diagnosis. JAMA Intern Med. 2023 Oct 1;183(10):1098-1108. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2023.3575. PMCID: PMC10442785. PubMed. Full Code.

Sneha Kannan, Jennifer Stevens, and Zirui Song. Growth In Patient Cost Sharing For Hospitalizations With And Without Intensive Care Among Commercially Insured Patients. Health Aff (Millwood). 2023 Sep;42(9):1221-1229. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2023.00419. PMCID: PMC10729672. PubMed. Full Code.

Amanda C. Chen, David C. Grabowski. Nursing homes underreport antipsychotic use but overreport diagnoses qualifying for appropriate use. Health Affairs Scholar, Volume 1, Issue 2, August 2023, NIHMSID: 1956723. PMCID in process. Full Code.

Natalia Festa, Lidia MVR Moura, Deborah Blacker, Joseph P. Newhouse, John Hsu. The Promise and Peril of Claims-Based Dementia Ascertainment in Causal Inference. BMJ Evid Based Med. 2023 Aug;28(4):222-225. doi: 10.1136/bmjebm-2022-112134. Epub 2023 May 2. PMCID: PMC10486140. PubMed.

Natalia Festa, Nina Katz-Christy, Max Weiss, Rebecca Lisk, Sharon-Lise Normand, David C. Grabowski, Joseph P. Newhouse, John Hsu. Nursing Home Infection Control Strategies During the COVID-19 Pandemic. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2023 Aug; 71(8): 2593-2600. doi: 10.1111/jgs.18402. Epub 2023 May 22. PMCID: PMC10702332. PubMed.

Michael Geruso, Timothy J. Layton, Jacob Wallace. What Difference Does a Health Plan Make? Evidence from Random Plan Assignment in Medicaid.Am Econ J Appl Econ. 2023 Jul;15(3):341-379. doi: 10.1257/app.20210843. PMCID: PMC10445793. PubMed.  Full Code.

Dan P Ly, Mia A Giuriato, Zirui Song. Changes in Prescription Drug and Health Care Use Over 9 Years After the Large Drug Price Increase for Colchicine. JAMA Intern Med. 2023 Jul 1;183(7):670-676. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2023.0898. Epub 2023 May 8;e230898. PMCID: PMC10167599. PubMed. Full Code.

Agne Ulyte, RJ Waken, Arnold M. Epstein, E. John Orav, Michael L. Barnett, Karen E. Joynt Maddox, David C. Grabowski. Medicare skilled nursing facility use and spending before and after the public health emergency waiver. JAMA Intern Med. 2023 Jul 1;183(7):637-645. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2023.0770. Epub 2023 Apr 24;e230770. PMCID: PMC10126940. PubMedFull Code.

Eric T. Roberts, Youngmin Kwon, Alexandra G Hames, J. Michael McWilliams, John Z. Ayanian, Renuka Tipirneni. Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Health Care Use and Access Associated with Loss of Medicaid Supplemental Insurance Eligibility Above the Federal Poverty Level. JAMA Intern Med. 2023 Jun 1;183(6):534-543. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2023.0512. Epub 2023 Apr10; e230512. PMCID: PMC10087092. PubMedFull Code.

Lilian Maria Godeiro Coelho, Deborah Blacker, John Hsu, Joseph P Newhouse, M. Brandon Westover, Sahar F. Zafar, Lidia M.V.R. Moura. Association of Early Seizure Prophylaxis with Post-Traumatic Seizures and Mortality: A Meta-Analysis with Evidence Quality Assessment. Neurol Clin Pract. 2023 Jun;13(3):e200145. doi: 10.1212/CPJ.0000000000200145.  Epub 2023 Mar 30. PMCID: PMC10101717. PubMed.

Peter F. Lyu, Michael E. Chernew, J. Michael McWilliams. Benchmarking Changes and Selective Participation in the Medicare Shared Savings Program. Health Aff (Millwood). 2023 May;42(5):622-631. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2022.01061. PMCID: PMC10228701. PubMed. Full Code.

Christopher Cai, Zirui Song. A Policy Framework for the Growing Influence of Private Equity in Health Care Delivery. JAMA. 2023 May 9; 329(18): 1545–1546. doi: 10.1001/jama.2023.2801. PMCID: PMC10699936.  PubMed.

Bruce E. Landon, Alan M. Zaslavsky, Timothy S. Anderson, Jeffrey Souza, Vilsa Curto, John Z. Ayanian. Differences In Use of Services and Quality of Care in Medicare Advantage and Traditional Medicare, 2010–17. Health Aff (Millwood). 2023 Apr;42(4):459-469. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2022.00891. PMCID: PMC9588515. PubMedFull Code.

Natalia Festa, John Hsu, James K Hammitt, Thomas M Gill. Reappraising the public health benefits conferred by environmental policy: Considerations for an aging society. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2023 Apr;71(4):1291-1299. doi: 10.1111/jgs.18219. Epub 2022 Dec 31. PMCID: PMC10089964. PubMed.

Lucy Chen and J. Michael McWilliams. Performance on Patient Experience Measures of Former Chief Medical Residents as Physician Exemplars Chosen by the Profession. JAMA Intern Med. 2023 Apr 1;183(4):350-359. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2023.0025. Epub 2023 Feb 27; e230025. PMCID: PMC9972239. PubMed. Full Code.

Nicole M Benson, Mary Price, Christine Vogeli, Maryann M Vienneau, Mallika L Mendu, Amy Flaster, Lisa Balentine, Lindsay Jubelt, Gregg S Meyer, John Hsu. Population turnover and leakage in commercial ACOs. Am J Manag Care. 2023 Apr 1;29(4):e104-e110. doi: 10.37765/ajmc.2023.89350. PMCID: PMC10542917. PubMed. Full Code.

Lisa Simon, Zirui Song, and Michael L. Barnett. Dental Services Use: Medicare Beneficiaries Experience Immediate and Long-Term Reductions After Enrollment. Health Aff (Millwood). 2023 Feb;42(2):286-295. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2021.01899. PMCID: PMC10022587. PubMed. Full Code.

Maximilian J. Pany, J. Michael McWilliams. Physician Peer Relationships and Patient Experiences with Specialist Care. JAMA Intern Med. 2023 Feb 1;183(2):124-132. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2022.6007. Epub 2023 Jan 3. PMCID: PMC9857606. PubMed. Full Code.

J. Michael McWilliams, Gabe Weinreb, Lin Ding, Chima D. Ndumele, and Jacob Wallace. Risk Adjustment and Promoting Health Equity in Population-Based Payment: Concepts in Evidence. Health Aff (Millwood). 2023 Jan;42(1):105-114. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2022. 00916. PMCID: PMC9901844. PubMed. Full Code.


Bruce E. Landon, Timothy S. Anderson, Vilsa E. Curto, Peter Cram, Christina Fu, Gabe Weinreb, Alan M. Zaslavsky, John Z. Ayanian. Association of Medicare Advantage vs. Traditional Medicare With 30-Day Mortality Among Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction. JAMA. 2022 Dec 6;328(21):2126-2135. doi: 10.1001/jama.2022.20982. PMCID: PMC9856265. PubMed. Full Code.

Timothy S. Anderson, John Z. Ayanian, Alan M. Zaslavsky, Jeffrey Souza, Bruce E Landon. National Trends in Antihypertensive Treatment Among Older Adults by Race and Presence of Comorbidity, 2008 to 2017. J Gen Intern Med. 2022 Dec;37(16):4223-4232. doi: 10.1007/s11606-022-07612-3. Epub 2022 Apr 26. PMCID: PMC9708992. PubMed. Full Code.

Lidia M V R Moura, Sahar Zafar, Nicole M Benson, Natalia Festa, Mary Price, Maria A Donahue, Sharon-Lise Normand, Joseph P Newhouse, Deborah Blacker, John Hsu. Identifying Medicare Beneficiaries With Delirium. Med Care. 2022 Nov 1; 60(11): 852–859. Published online 2022 Aug 31. doi: 10.1097/MLR.0000000000001767. PMCID: PMC9588515.  PubMed. Full Code.

Timothy J. Layton, Nicole Maestas, Daniel Prinz, Boris Vabson. Healthcare Rationing in Public Insurance Programs: Evidence from Medicaid. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy. November 2022. Vol .14, No. 4: pp.397-431. DOI: 10.1257/pol.20190628. PMCID: PMC9945909. PubMed.  Full Code.

Jeffrey Dong, Alan M. Zaslavsky, John Z. Ayanian, Bruce E. Landon. Turnover Among New Medicare Advantage Enrollees May Be Greater Than Perceived. Am J Manag Care. 2022 Oct;28(10):539-542. doi: 10.37765/ajmc.2022.89251. PMCID: PMC9586458. PubMed. Full Code.

Marta Fernandes, Maria A Donahue, Dan Hoch, Sydney Cash, Sahar Zafar, Claire Jacobs, Mackenzie Hosford, P Emanuela Voinescu, Brandy Fureman, Jeffrey Buchhalter, Christopher Michael McGraw, M Brandon Westover, Lidia M V R Moura. A replicable, open-source, data integration method to support national practice-based research & quality improvement systems. Epilepsy Res. 2022 Oct; 186:107013. doi: 10.1016/j.eplepsyres.2022.107013. Epub 2022 Aug 18. PMCID: PMC9810436. PubMed.

Thomas Roberts and Zirui Song. Medicare Advantage Financing and Quality in Puerto Rico vs the 50 US States and Washington. DC. JAMA Health Forum. 2022 Sep 2;3(9): e223073. doi: 10.1001/jamahealthforum.2022.3073. PMCID: PMC9482057. PubMed.  Full Code.

Andrew M. Ryan, Baris Gulseren, John Z. Ayanian, Adam A. Markovitz, David J Meyers, Erin Fuse Brown. Association between double bonuses and clinical and administrative performance in Medicare Advantage. JAMA Health Form. 2022 Sep 2;3(9) e:223301. doi: 10.1001/jamahealthforum.2022.3301. PMCID: PMC9508651. PubMed.

Natalia Festa, Mary Price, Max Weiss, Lidia M. V. R. Moura, Nicole M. Benson, Sahar Zafar, Deborah Blacker, Sharon-Lise T. Normand, Joseph P Newhouse, John Hsu. Evaluating The Accuracy Of Medicare Risk Adjustment For Alzheimer's Disease And Related Dementias. Health Aff (Millwood). 2022 Sep;41(9):1324-1332. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2022.00185. PMCID: PMC9973227. PubMed. Full Code.

Sumit D Agarwal, Sanjay Basu, Bruce E Landon. The Underuse of Medicare's Prevention and Coordination Codes in Primary Care: A Cross-Sectional and Modeling Study. Ann Intern Med. 2022 Aug;175(8):1100-1108. doi: 10.7326/M21-4770. Epub 2022 Jun 28. PMCID: PMC9933078. PubMed.

Natalia Festa, Mary Price, Lidia MVR Moura, Deborah Blacker, Sharon-Lise Normand, Joseph P. Newhouse, John Hsu. Evaluating Claims-Based Ascertainment of Alzheimer Disease and Related Dementias Across Healthcare Settings. JAMA Health Forum. 2022 Apr; 3(4): e220653. Published online 2022 Apr 22. doi: 10.1001/jamahealthforum.2022.0653. PMCID: PMC9034399. PubMed. Full Code.

Adam A Markovitz, Andrew M Ryan, Timothy A Peterson, Michael D Rozier, John Z Ayanian, John M Hollingsworth. ACO Awareness and Perceptions Among Specialists Versus Primary Care Physicians: A Survey of a Large Medicare Shared Savings Program. J Gen Intern Med. 2022 Feb;37(2):492-494. doi: 10.1007/s11606-020-06556-w. Epub 2021 Jan 26. PMCID: PMC8811095. PubMed.

Aaron L. Schwartz, Yujun Chen, Chris L. Jagmin, Dorothea J. Verbrugge, Troyen A. Brennan, Peter W. Groeneveld, and Joseph P. Newhouse. Coverage Denials in Medicare: Government and Private Policies for Medical Necessity.  Health Aff (Millwood). 2022 Jan;41(1):120-128. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2021.01054.  PMCID: PMC9465897. PubMed. Full Code.

Zirui Song, Sneha Kannan, Robert J Gambrel, Molly Marino, Muthiah Vaduganathan, Mark A Clapp, Jacqueline A Seiglie, Patricia P Bloom, Athar N Malik, Matthew J Resnick. Physician Practice Pattern Variations in Common Clinical Scenarios Within 5 US Metropolitan Areas. JAMA Health Forum. 2022 Jan 28;3(1): e214698. doi: 10.1001/jamahealthforum.2021.4698. eCollection 2022 Jan. PMCID: PMC8903123. PubMed.

Pooja U Neiman, Vibav H Mouli, Kathryn K Taylor, John Z Ayanian, Justin B Dimick, John W Scott. The Impact of Medicare Coverage on Downstream Financial Outcomes for Adults Who Undergo Surgery. Ann Surg. 2022 Jan 1;275(1):99-105. doi: 10.1097/SLA.0000000000005272.  PMCID: PMC10088463.  PubMed.  

Jennifer P Stevens, Laura A Hatfield, David J Nyweide, Bruce Landon. Comparison of Health Outcomes Among Patients Admitted on Busy vs Less Busy Days for Hospitalists. JAMA Netw Open. 2022 Jan 4;5(1): e2144261. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.44261. PMCID: PMC8777570. PubMed.


Aaron L. Schwartz, Khalil Zlaoui, Robin P. Foreman; Troyen A. Brennan, Joseph P. Newhouse. Health Care Utilization and Spending in Medicare Advantage vs Traditional Medicare: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis. JAMA Health Forum. 2021;2(12): e214001. doi:10.1001/jamahealthforum.2021.4001. December 10, 2021. PMCID: PMC8796939. PubMed. Full Code.

Adam A. Markovitz, John Z. Ayanian, Devraj Sukul, Andrew M. Ryan. The Medicare Advantage Quality Bonus Program has not improved quality. Health Aff(Millwood). 2021 Dec; 40(12):1918-1925. doi:10:1377/hlthaff.2021.00606. PMCID: PMC9098184. PubMed.

Michael L. Barnett, Asaf Bitton, Jeff Souza, and Bruce E. Landon. Trends in Outpatient Care for Medicare Beneficiaries and Implications for Primary Care, 2000 to 2019. Ann Intern Med. 2021 Dec;174(12):1658-1665. doi: 10.7326/M21-1523. Epub 2021 Nov 2. PMCID: PMC8688292. PubMed. Full Code.

Erica S. Shenoy, Mia Amalia Giuriato, Zirui Song. Prevalence, Costs, and Consequences of Low-Value Preprocedural Urinalyses in the US. JAMA Intern Med. 2021 Nov 1;181(11):1533-1535. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2021.4075. Epub Aug 2;e214075. PMCID: PMC8329792. PubMed.

Timothy S. Anderson; John Z Ayanian, Jeffrey Souza, Bruce E. Landon. Representativeness of Participants Eligible to be Enrolled in Clinical Trials of Aducanumab for Alzheimer Disease Compared With Medicare Beneficiaries With Alzheimer Disease and Mild Cognitive Impairment. JAMA. 2021 Oct 26;326(16):1627-1629. doi: 10.1001/jama.2021.15286. PMCID: PMC8430904. PubMed. Full Code.

Eric T. Roberts, Zirui Song, Lin Ding, J. Michael McWilliams. Changes in Patient Experiences and Assessment of Gaming Among Large Clinician Practices in Precursors of the Merit-Based Incentive Payment System. JAMA Health Forum. 2021 Oct;2(10):e213105. doi: 10.1001/jamahealthforum.2021.3105. Epub 2021 Oct 8. PMCID: PMC8623747. PubMedFull Code.

John Hsu, Tor Iversen, Mary Price, Tron Anders Moger, Delaney Tevis, Terje P Hagen, William H. Dow. Myocardial Infarction Care Among The Elderly: Declining Treatment With Increasing Age In Two Countries. Health Aff (Millwood). 2021 Sep;40(9):1483-1490. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2021.00108. PMID: 34495733. NIHMSID:1794476. PMCID in process.  PubMed. Full Code.

Adam A. Markovitz, John Z. Ayanian, Anupama Warrier, Andrew M. Ryan. Medicare Advantage Plan Double Bonuses Drive Racial Disparity In Payments, Yield No Quality Or Enrollment Improvements. Health Aff (Millwood). 2021 Sep;40(9):1411-1419. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2021.00349. PMCID: PMC9278554. PubMed.

Lidia M. V. R. Moura, Natalia Festa, Mary Price, Margarita Volya, Nicole M. Benson, Sahar F. Zafar, Max Weiss, Deborah Blacker, Sharon-Lise Normand, Joseph P. Newhouse, John Hsu. Identifying Medicare beneficiaries with dementia. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2021 Aug;69(8):2240-2251. doi: 10.1111/jgs.17183. Epub 2021 Apr 26. PMCID: PMC8373730. PubMed. Full Code.

Andrea Acevedo, Brian O. Mullin, Ana M.  Progovac, Theodore L. Caputi, J. Michael McWilliams, Benjamin L. Cook. Impact of the Medicare Shared Savings Program on utilization of mental health and substance use services by eligibility and race/ethnicity. Health Serv Res. 2021 Aug;56(4):581-591. doi: 10.1111/1475-6773.13625. Epub 2021 Feb 5. PMCID: PMC8313953. PubMed.

Felipe J. S. Jones, Paula R. Sanches, Jason R. Smith, Sahar F. Zafar, Sonia Hernandez-Diaz, Deborah Blacker, John Hsu, Lee H. Schwamm, Michael B. Westover, Lidia M. V. R. Moura. Anticonvulsant Primary and Secondary Prophylaxis for Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients: A Decision Analysis. Stroke. 2021 Aug;52(9):2782-2791. doi: 10.1161/STROKEAHA.120.033299. Epub 2021 Jun 15. PMCID: PMC8384723. PubMed. Full Code.

Prachi Sanghavi, J. Michael McWilliams, Aaron L. Schwartz, Alan M. Zaslavsky. Association of Low-Value Care Exposure with Health Care Experience Ratings Among Patient Panels. JAMA Intern Med. 2021 Jul 1;181(7):941-948. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2021.1974. DOI: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2021.1974. PMCID: PMC8261613. PubMed. Full Code.

Andrew D. Wilcok, Michael L. Barnett, J. Michael McWilliams, David C. Grabowski, Ateev Mehrotra. Hosptial Responses to Incentives in Episode-Bases Payment for Joint Surgery: A Controlled Population-Based Study. JAMA Intern Med. 2021 Jul 1; 181(7): 932-940. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2021.1897. PMCID: PMC8129900. PubMed. Full Code.

Brian E. McGarry, David C. Grabowski, Lin Ding, J. Michael McWilliams. Outcomes After Shortened Skilled Nursing Facility Stays Suggest Potential for Improving Post-acute Care Efficiency. Health Aff (Millwood). 2021 May;40(5):745-753. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00649. PMCID: PMC8130553. PubMed. Full Code.

Joseph P. Newhouse. Commentary on: The effects of coding intensity in Medicare Advantage on plan benefits and finances. Health Serv Res. 2021 Apr;56(2):175-177. doi: 10.1111/1475-6773.13639. PMCID: PMC7968941. PubMed.

Ashvin Gandhi, Huizi Yu, David C. Grabowski. High Nursing Staff Turnover In Nursing Homes Offers Important Quality Information. Health Aff (Millwood). 2021 Mar;40(3):384-391. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00957. PMCID: PMC7992115. PubMed. Full Code.

Aaron L. Schwartz, Troyen A. Brennan, Dorothea J. Verbugge, Joseph P. Newhouse. Measuring the Scope of Prior Authorization Policies: Applying Private Insurer Rules to Medicare Part B. JAMA Health Forum. 2021 May; 2(5): e210859. Published online 2021 May 28. doi: 10.1001/jamahealthforum.2021.0859.PMCID: PMC8796979. PubMed. Full Code.

Bruce E. Landon, Alan M. Zaslavsky Jeff Souza, and John Z. Ayanian. Use of Diabetes Medications in Traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage. Am J Manag Care. 2021 Mar 1;27(3): e80-e88. doi: 10.37765/ajmc.2021.88602. PMCID: PMC7967940. PubMed. Full Code.

Lidia M. V. R. Moura, Jason R. Smith, Zhiyu Yan, Deborah Blacker, Lee H. Schwamm, Jospeh P. Newhouse, Sonia Hernandez-Diaz, John Hsu. Patterns of anticonvulsant use and adverse drug events in older adults. Pharmacoepidemiol Drug Saf. 2021 Jan;30(1):28-36. doi:10.1002/pds.5139. Epub 2020 Oct 2 PMCID: PMC7849867. PubMed. Full Code.


Jason R. Smith, Felipe J. S. Jones, Brandy. E Fureman, Jeffrey R. Buchhalter, Susan T. Herman, Neishay Ayub, Christopher McGraw, Sydney S. Cash, Daniel B. Hoch, Lidia M. V. R. Moura. Accuracy of ICD-10-CM claims-based definitions for epilepsy and seizure type. Epilepsy Res. 2020 Oct;166:106414. doi: 10.1016/j.eplepsyres.2020.106414. Epub 2020 Jul 11. PMCID: PMC7797939. PubMed. Full Code.

J. Michael McWilliams, Laura A. Hatfield, Bruce E. Landon, Michael E. Chernew. Savings or Selection? Initial Spending Reductions in the Medicare Shared Savings Program and Considerations for Reform. Milbank Q. 2020 Sep; 98(3):847-907. doi:10.1111/1468-0009.12468. Epub 2020 Jul 22. PMCID: PMC7482384. PubMed Full Code

Scott A Goldberg, Charles T Pu, Ryan W Thompson, Eden Mark, Thomas D Sequist, David C Grabowski. Asymptomatic Spread of COVID-19 in 97 Patients at a Skilled Nursing Facility. J Am Med Dir Assoc. 2020 Jul;21(7):980-981. doi: 10.1016/j.jamda.2020.05.040. Epub 2020 May 29. PMCID: PMC7256505. PubMed.

Sumit D. Agarwal, Michael L. Barnett, Jeff Souza, Bruce E. Landon. Medicare's Care Management Codes Might Not Support Primary Care As Expected. Health Aff (Millwood) 2020 May; 39(5):828-836. PMCID: PMC7490751. PubMed. Full Code.

David C Grabowski, Karen E Joynt Maddox. Postacute Care Preparedness for COVID-19: Thinking Ahead. JAMA. 2020 May 26;323(20):2007-2008. doi: 10.1001/jama.2020.4686. PMCID: PMC9901818. PubMed.

Michael Geruso and Timothy J. Layton. Upcoding: Evidence from Medicare on Squishy Risk Adjustment. J Polit Econ. 2020 Mar;12(3):984-1026. doi: 10.1086/704756. Epub 2020 Jan 29. PMCID: PMC7384673. PubMed.

Vinay K. Rathi, J. Michael McWilliams, Eric T. Roberts. Getting Incentives Right in Payment Reform: Thinking Beyond Financial Risk. Ann Intern Med. 2020 Mar 17;172(6):423-424. doi: 10.7326/M19-3178. Epub 2020 Feb 18. PMCID: PMC7422702. PubMed.

Natalie McCormick, Zachary S. Wallace, Chana A. Sacks, John Hsu, Hyon K. Choi. Decomposition Analysis of Spending and Price Trends for Biologic Antheumatic Drugs in Medicare and Medicaid. Arthritis Rheumatol. 2020 Feb;72(2):234-241. doi:10.1002/art.41138. Epub 2020 Jan 6. PMCID: PMC6994362. PubMed. Full Code.

Andrew D. Wilcock, Michael L. Barnett, J. Michael McWilliams, David C. Grabowski, Ateev Mehrotra. Association Between Medicare’s Mandatory Joint Replacement Bundled Payment Program and Post–Acute Care Use in Medicare Advantage. JAMA Surg. 2020 Jan 1;155(1):82-84. doi: 10.1001/jamasurg.2019.3957. Epub 2019 Oct 2.  PMCID: PMC6777232. PubMed. Full Code.

Alyssa Bilinski and Laura A. Hatfield. Nothing to see here? Non-inferiority approaches to parallel trends and other model assumptions. Jan 2020; arXiv:1805.03273v5 [stat.ME] [Available from: ].


Joseph P. Newhouse. Mary Price, John Hsu, Bruce E. Landon, J. Michael McWilliams. Delivery System Performance as Financial Risk Varies. Am J Manag Care. 2019 Dec 1;25(12):e388-e394. PMCID: PMC7412600. PubMed. Full Code.

Ishani Ganguli, Jeffrey Souza, J. Michael McWilliams, and Ateev Mehrotra. Association Of Medicare's Annual Wellness Visit With Cancer Screening, Referrals, Utilization, And Spending. Health Aff (Millwood). 2019 Nov;38(11):1927-1935. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2019.00304. PMCID: PMC6903905. PubMed Full Code.

J. Michael McWilliams, Michael L. Barnett, Eric T. Roberts, Pasha Hamed, and Ateev Mehrotra. Did Hospital Readmissions Fall Because Per Capita Admission Rates Fell? Health Aff (Millwood). 2019 Nov;38(11):1840-1844. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2019.00411. PMCID: PMC6890374. PubMed. Full Code.

Brian E. McGarry, Timothy J. Layton, David C. Grabowski. The Effects of Plan Payment Rates on the Market for Medicare Advantage Dual-Eligible Special Needs Plan. Health Serv Res. 2019 Oct;54(5):1137-1145. doi: 10.1111/1475-6773.13170. Epub 2019 May 20. PMCID: PMC6736914. PubMed. Full Code.

Lina Song, Xavier García-Albéniz, Miguel A. Hernán, Joseph P. Newhouse, John Hsu. Changes in screening colonoscopy following Medicare reimbursement and cost-sharing changes: estimates using different lenses. Health Serv Res. 2019 Aug;54(4):839-850. doi: 10.1111/1475-6773.13150. Epub 2019 Apr 2. PMCID: PMC6606542. PubMed. Full Code.

Savannah L. Bergquist, Timothy J. Layton, Thomas G. McGuire, Sherri Rose. Data transformations to improve the performance of health plan payment methods. J Health Econ. 2019 Jul;66:195-207. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2019.05.005. Epub 2019 May 24. PMCID: PMC7442111. PubMed. Full Code.

J. Michael McWilliams, Bruce. E. Landon, Vinay K. Rathi, Michael E. Chernew. Getting More Savings From ACOs - Can the Pace be Pushed? N Engl J Med. 2019 Jun 6;380(23):2190-2192. doi: 10.1056/NEJMp1900537. PMCID: PMC6624070. PubMed.

Joseph P. Newhouse, Mary Beth Landrum, Mary Price, J. Michael McWilliams, John Hsu and Thomas G. McGuire. The Comparative Advantage of Medicare Advantage. Am J Health Econ. 2019 Spring;5(2):281-301. Epub 2019 Apr 23. PMCID: PMC6481953.  PubMed. Full Code.

Joseph P. Newhouse, Mary Price, J. Michael McWilliams, John Hsu, Jeff Souza, and Bruce E. Landon. Adjusted Mortality Rates in Medicare Advantage Are Lower Than Traditional Medicare But Over Time the Two Rates Converge. Health Aff (Millwood). 2019 Apr;38(4):554-560. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2018.05390. PMCID: PMC6555557. PubMed. Full Code.

Vinay K. Rathi, J. Michael McWilliams. First-Year Report Cards From the Merit-Based Incentive Payment System (MIPS): What Will Be Learned and What Next? JAMA. 2019 Mar 26;321(12):1157-1158. doi: 10.1001/jama.2019.1295. PMID: 30830150. PubMed.

Lidia M. V. R. Moura, Jason R. Smith, Deborah Blacker, Christine Vogeli, Lee H. Schwamm, Andrew J. Cole, Sonia Hernandez-Diaz, John Hsu. Epilepsy Among Elderly Medicare Beneficiaries: A Validated Approach to Identify Prevalent and Incident Epilepsy. Med Care. 2019 Apr;57(4):318-324. doi: 10.1097/MLR.0000000000001072. PMCID: PMC6417929. PubMed. Full Code.

Rudy Douven, Ron van der Heijden, Thomas G. McGuire, and Erik Schut. Premium Levels and Demand Response in Health Insurance: Relative Thinking and Zero-Price Effects. J Econ Behav Organ Available online 16 March 2019.

Lidia M. V. R. Moura, Jason R. Smith, Deborah Blacker, Christine Vogeli, Lee H. Schwamm, John Hsu. Medicare Claims Can Identify Post-Stroke Epilepsy. Epilepsy Res. 2019 Mar:151:40-47. doi: 10.1016/j.eplepsyres.2019.02.002. Epub 2019 Feb 8. PMCID: PMC6640134. PubMed. Full Code.

Bruce. E. Landon. A Step Toward Protecting Payments for Primary Care. N Engl J Med. 2019 Feb 7;380(6):507-510. doi: 10.1056/NEJMp1810848. PMCID: PMC6442455. PubMed.

Michael L. Barnett, Andrew Wilcock, J. Michael McWilliams, Arnold M. Epstein, Karen E. Joynt Maddox, E. John Orav, David C. Grabowski, Ateev Mehrotra. Two-Year Evaluation of Mandatory Bundled Payments for Joint Replacement. N Engl J Med. 2019 Jan 17;380(3):252-262. doi: 10.1056/NEJMsa1809010. Epub 2019 Jan 2. PMCID: PMC6504974. PubMed. Full Code.

Aaron L. Schwartz, Anupam B. Jena, Alan M. Zaslavsky, J. Michael McWilliams. Analysis of Physician Variation in Provision of Low-Value Services. JAMA Intern Med. 2019 Jan 1;179(1):16-25. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2018.5086. PMCID: PMC6583417. PubMed. Full Code.

Renuka Tipirneni, Ishani Ganguli, John Z Ayanian, Kenneth M Langa. Reducing disparities in healthy aging through an enhanced Medicare annual wellness visit. Public Policy Aging Rep. 2019 Jan;29(1):26-32. doi: 10.1093/ppar/pry048. Epub 2018 Dec 18. PMCID: PMC6529776. PubMed.


Savannah L. Bergquist, Thomas G. McGuire, Timothy J. Layton, and Sherri Rose. Sample Selection for Medicare Risk Adjustment Due to Systematically Missing Data. Health Serv Res. 2018 Dec;53(6):4204-4223. doi: 10.1111/1475-6773.13046. Epub 2018 Sep 11. PMCID: PMC6232496. PubMed. Full Code.

Jamie R. Daw, Laura A. Hatfield. Matching in difference-in-differences: between a rock and a hard place. Health Serv Res. 2018 Dec;53(6):4111-4117. doi: 10.1111/1475-6773.13017. Epub 2018 Jul 25. PMCID: PMC6232434. PubMed.

Jamie R. Daw, Laura A. Hatfield. Matching and Regression to the Mean in Difference-in-Differences Analysis. Health Serv Res. 2018 Dec;53(6):4138-4156. doi: 10.1111/1475-6773.12993. Epub 2018 Jun 29. PMCID: PMC6232412. PubMed. Full Code.

Eric T. Roberts, Alan M. Zaslavsky, Michael L. Barnett, Bruce E. Landon, Lin Ding, J. Michael McWilliams. Assessment of the Effect of Adjustment for Patient Characteristics on Hospital Readmission Rates: Implications for Pay for Performance. JAMA Intern Med. 2018 Nov 1;178(11):1498-1507. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2018.4481. PMCID: PMC6248207. PubMed. Full Text. Full Code.

Lauren G. Gilstrap, Haiden A. Huskamp, David G. Stevenson, Michael E. Chernew, David C. Grabowski, J. Michael McWilliams. Changes In End-Of-Life Care In The Medicare Shared Savings Program. Health Aff (Millwood). 2018 Oct;37(10):1693-1700. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2018.0491. PMCID: PMC6233308. PubMed. Full Code.

J. Michael McWilliams, Laura A. Hatfield, Bruce E. Landon, Pasha Hamed, Michael E. Chernew. Medicare Spending after 3 Years of the Medicare Shared Savings Program. N Engl J Med. 2018 Sep 20;379(12):1139-1149. doi: 10.1056/NEJMsa1803388. Epub 2018 Sep 5. PMCID: PMC6269647. PubMed. Full Code.

Timothy J. Layton, Thomas G. McGuire, Richard C. van Kleef. Deriving Risk Adjustment Payment Weights to Maximize Efficiency of Health Insurance Markets. J Health Econ. 2018 Sep;61:93-110. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2018.07.001. Epub 2018 Jul 23. PMCID: PMC6471663. PubMed. Full Code.

Julius L. Chen, Michael E. Chernew, and Andrew L. Hicks. Prices for Physician Services in Medicare Advantage versus Traditional Medicare.  Am J Manag Care. 2018 Jul;24(7):341-344. PMCID: PMC6053627. PubMed. Full Code.

Michael M. Barnett, J. Michael McWilliams. Changes in Specialty Care Use and Leakage in Medicare Accountable Care. Am J Manag Care. 2018 May 1;24(5):e141-e149. PMCID: PMC5986093. PubMed. Full Code.

Eric T. Roberts, Laura A. Hatfield, J. Michael McWilliams, Sule Gerovich, Michael E. Chernew, Lauren G. Gilstrap, Done, Ateev Mehrotra. Changes in Hospital Utilization Three Years into Maryland’s Global Budget Program for Rural Hospitals. Health Aff (Millwood). 2018 Apr;37(4):644-653. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2018.0112. PMCID: PMC5993431. PubMed. Full Code.

Bruce E. Landon, Alan M. Zaslavsky, Jeffrey Souza and John Z. Ayanian. Trends in Diabetes Treatment and Monitoring Among Medicare Beneficiaries. J Gen Intern Med. 2018 Apr;33(4):471-480. doi: 10.1007/s11606-018-4310-4. Epub 2018 Feb 9. PMCID: PMC5880782. PubMed. Full Code.

Eric T. Roberts, J. Michael McWilliams, Laura A. Hatfield, Sule Gerovich, Michael E. Chernew, Lauren G. Gilstrap, Ateev Mehrotra. Changes in Health Care Use Associated with the Introduction of Hospital Global Budgets in Maryland. JAMA Intern Med. 2018 Feb 1;178(2):260-268. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2017.7455. PMCID: PMC5838791. PubMed. Full Code.

Ishani Ganguli, Jeffrey Souza, J. Michael McWilliams, Ateev Mehrotra. Practices caring for the underserved are less likely to adopt Medicare’s annual wellness visit. Health Aff (Millwood). 2018 Feb;37(2):283-291. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2017.1130. PMCID: PMC6080307. PubMed. Full Code.

Aaron L. Schwartz, Alan M. Zaslavsky, Bruce E. Landon, Michael E. Chernew, J. Michael McWilliams. Low-Value Service Use in Provider Organizations. Health Serv Res. 2018 Feb;53(1):87-119. doi: 10.1111/1475-6773.12597. Epub 2016 Nov 10. PMCID: PMC5785325. PubMed. Full Code.

Eric T. Roberts, Alan M. Zaslavsky, J. Michael McWilliams. The Value-Based Payment Modifier: Program Outcomes and Implications for Disparities. Ann Intern Med. 2018 Feb 20;168(4):255-265. doi: 10.7326/M17-1740. Epub 2018 Nov 28. [Epub ahead of print]. PMCID: PMC5820192. PubMed. Full Code.


Joseph P. Newhouse.  Risk adjustment with an outside option. J Health Econ. 2017 Dec; 56:256-258. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2017.01.001. PMCID: PMC5739068. PubMed.

Jacob Glazer, Thomas G. McGuire. Paying Medicare Advantage plans: To level or tilt the playing field. J Health Econ. 2017 Dec; 56:281-291. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2016.12.004. Epub 2016 Dec 29. PMCID: PMC5548660. PubMed.

Thomas G. McGuire, Richard C. Van Kleef. Introduction to the special section health plan payment in regulated competition. J Health Econ. 2017 Dec; 56:234-236. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2017.09.007. Epub 2017 Sep 15. PMCID: PMC5899416. PubMed.

J. Michael McWilliams, Michael E. Chernew, Bruce E. Landon. Medicare ACO Program Savings Not Tied To  Preventable Hospitalizations Or Concentrated Among High-Risk Patients. Health Aff (Millwood). 2017 Dec;36(12):2085-2093. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2017.0814. PMCID: PMC5762118. PubMed. Full Code.

Bruce E. Landon, Robert E. Mechanic. The Paradox of Coding — Policy Concerns Raised by Risk-Based Provider Contracts. N Engl J Med. 2017 Sep 28;377(13):1211-1213. doi: 10.1056/NEJMp1708084. PMID: 28953441. PubMed. Not Peer Reviewed.

J. Michael McWilliams, Mehdi Nejafzadeh, William H. Shrank, Jennifer M. Polinski. Association of Changes in Medication Use and Adherence With Accountable Care Organization Exposure in Patients With Cardiovascular Disease or Diabetes. JAMA Cardiol. 2017 Sep 1;2(9):1019-1023. doi: 10.1001/jamacardio.2017.2172. PMCID: PMC5710170. PubMed. Full Code.

J. Michael McWilliams. MACRA — Big Fix or Big Problem? Ann Intern Med. 2017 Jul 18;167(2):122-124. doi: 10.7326/M17-0230. Epub 2017 May 16. PMCID: PMC5513746. PubMed.

Ishani Ganguli, Jeffrey Souza, J. Michael McWilliams, Ateev Mehrotra. Trends in Use of the US Medicare Annual Wellness Visit, 2011-2014. JAMA. 2017 Jun 6;317(21):2233-2235. doi: 10.1001/jama.2017.4342. PMCID: PMC5815054. PubMed. Full Code.

David C. Grabowski, Nina R. Joyce, Thomas G. McGuire, and Richard G. Frank. Passive Enrollment Of Dual-Eligible Beneficiaries Into Medicare And Medicaid Managed Care Has Not Met Expectations. Health Aff (Millwood). 2017 May 1;36(5):846-854. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2016.1082. PMCID: PMC5665685. PubMed. Full Code.

Xavier García-Albéniz, John Hsu, Michael Bretthauer, Miguel A. Hernán. Screening Colonoscopy to Prevent Colorectal Cancer Among Medicare Beneficiaries Aged 70 to 79 Years. Ann Intern Med. 2017 May 16;166(10):758-759. doi: 10.7326/L17-0138. PMID: 28505646. PubMed. Full Text.

Lidia M. V. R. Moura, Maggie Price, Andrew J. Cole Daniel B. Hoch, John Hsu. Accuracy of claims-based algorithms for epilepsy research in the US population. Epilepsia 2017 Apr;58(4):683-691. doi: 10.1111/epi.13691. Epub 2017 Feb 15. P PMCID: PMC6592609. PubMed. Full Text. Full Code.

Bruce E. Landon, Tipping the Scale — The Norms Hypothesis and Primary Care Physician Behavior. N Engl J Med. 2017 Mar 2;376(9):810-811. doi: 10.1056/NEJMp1510923. PMID: 28249130. PubMed. Not Peer Reviewed.

J. Michael McWilliams and Aaron L. Schwartz. Focusing on high-cost patients: the key to addressing high costs? N Engl J Med. 2017 Mar 2;376(9):807-809. doi: 10.1056/NEJMp1612779. PMCID: PMC5503135. PubMed.

J. Michael McWilliams, Lauren G. Gilstrap, David G, Stevenson, Michael E. Chernew, Haiden A. Huskamp, David C. Grabowski. Changes in Postacute Care in the Medicare Shared Savings Program. JAMA Intern Med. 2017 Apr 1;177(4):518-526. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2016.9115. PMCID: PMC5415671. PubMed. Full Code.

Hannah T. Neprash, Michael E. Chernew and J. Michael McWilliams. Little Evidence Exists To Support The Expectation That Providers Would Consolidate To Enter New Payment Models. Health Aff (Millwood). 2017 Feb 1;36(2):346-354. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2016.0840. PMCID: PMC5458639. PubMed. Full Code.

Xavier García-Albéniz, John Hsu, Michael Bretthauer, Miguel A. Hernán. Effectiveness of Screening Colonoscopy to Prevent Colorectal Cancer Among Medicare Beneficiaries Aged 70 to 79 Years: A Prospective Observational Study. Ann Intern Med. 2017 Jan 3;166(1):18-26. doi: 10.7326/M16-0758. Epub 2016 Sep 27. PMCID: PMC5417337. PubMed. Full Code.

Mike Geruso, Tim J. Layton. Selection in Health Insurance Markets and Its Policy Remedies. J Econ Perspect. 2017;31(4):23-50. PMID: 29465215. PubMed. Not Peer Reviewed.


J. Michael McWilliams. Savings From ACOs-Building on Early Success. Ann Intern Med. 2016 Dec 20;165(12):873-875. doi: 10.7326/M16-1846. Epub 2016 Oct 11. PMCID: PMC5237631. PubMed.

J. Michael McWilliams. Cost Containment and the Tale of Care Coordination. N Engl J Med. 2016 Dec 8;375(23):2218-2220. PMCID: PMC5506340. PubMed.

Lidia M V R Moura, Eli Schwamm, Valdery Moura Junior, Michael P Seitz, John Hsu, Andrew J Cole, Lee H Schwamm. Feasibility of the collection of patient-reported outcomes in an ambulatory neurology clinic. Neurology. 2016 Dec 6;87(23):2435-2442. doi: 10.1212/WNL.0000000000003409. Epub 2016 Nov 4. PMCID: PMC5177682. PubMed.

J. Michael McWilliams. Changes in Medicare Shared Savings Program savings from 2013 to 2014. JAMA. 2016 Oct 25;316(16):1711-1713. doi: 10.1001/jama.2016.12049. PMCID: PMC5083197. PubMed. Full Code.

Lidia M. V. R. Moura, Thiago S. Carneiro, Andrew J. Cole, John Hsu, Barbara G. Vickrey, and Daniel B. Hoch. Association between addressing antiseizure drug side effects and patient-reported medication adherence in epilepsy. Patient Prefer Adherence. 2016 Oct 31;10: 2197 -2207. eCollection 2016. PMCID: PMC5096772. PubMed. Full Code

J. Michael McWilliams, Laura A. Hatfield, Michael E. Chernew, Bruce E. Landon, Aaron L. Schwartz. Early Performance of Accountable Care Organizations in Medicare. N Engl J Med. 2016 Jun 16;374(24):2357-66. doi: 10.1056/NEJMsa1600142. Epub 2016 Apr 13. PMCID: PMC4963149. PubMed.

Michael Geruso, Thomas G. McGuire. Tradeoffs in the design of health plan payment systems: Fit, power and balance. J Health Econ. 2016 May;47:1-19. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2016.01.007. Epub 2016 Feb 10. PMCID: PMC4836985. PubMed.

John Hsu, Mary Price, Jenna Spirt, Christine Vogeli, Richard Brand, Michael E. Chernew, Sreekanth K. Chaguturu, Namita Mohta, Eric Weil and Timothy Ferris. Patient Population Loss At A Large Pioneer Accountable Care Organization And Implications For Refining The Program. Health Aff (Millwood). 2016 Mar;35(3):422-30. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2015.0805. PMCID: PMC5875694. PubMed.

Sherri Rose, Alan M. Zaslavsky, J. Michael McWilliams. Variation In Accountable Care Organization Spending And Sensitivity To Risk Adjustment: Implications For Benchmarking. Health Aff (Millwood). 2016 Mar;35(3):440-8. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2015.1026. PMCID: PMC5436972. PubMed.


Michael M. Barnett, John Hsu, J. Michael McWilliams. Patient Characteristics and Differences in Hospital Readmission Rates. JAMA Intern Med. 2015 Nov; 175(11):1803-12. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2015.4660. PMCID: PMC4991542. PubMed.

Aaron L. Schwartz, Michael E. Chernew, Bruce E. Landon, J. Michael McWilliams. Changes in Low-Value Services in Year 1 of the Medicare Pioneer Accountable Care Organization Program. JAMA Intern Med. 2015 Nov;175(11):1815-25. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2015.4525. PMCID: PMC4928485. PubMed.

Anna D. Sinaiko, Robert Zeckhauser. Medicare Advantage: what explains its robust health? Am J Manag Care. 2015 Nov;21(11):804-6. PMID: 26633253. Not Peer Reviewed. PubMedFull Text.

Katherine Baicker, Jacob A. Robbins. Medicare Payments and System-Level Health Care Use: The Spillover Effects of Medicare Managed Care. J Health Econ. 2015 Fall;1(4):399-431. Epub 2015 Oct 16. PMCID: PMC4813814. PubMed. Full Text.

Chris C. Afendulis, Anna D. Sinaiko, Richard G. Frank. Dominated choices and Medicare Advantage enrollment. J Econ Behav Organ. 2015 Nov 1;119:72-83. PMCID: PMC4553698. PubMed. Full Text.

Bruce E. Landon, Alan M. Zaslavsky, Robert Saunders, L. Gregory Pawlson, Joseph P. Newhouse, John Z. Ayanian. A comparison of relative resource use and quality in Medicare Advantage health plans versus traditional Medicare. Am J Manag Care. 2015 Aug;21(8):559-66. PMCID: PMC6365159. PubMed. Full Text.