2019

Ishani Ganguli, Jeffrey Souza, J. Michael McWilliams, and Ateev Mehrotra. Association Of Medicare’s Annual Wellness Visit With Cancer Screening, Referrals, Utilization, And Spending. Health Aff (Millwood). 2019 Nov;38(11):1927-1935. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2019.00304. PMID: PMID: 31682513. NIHMSID 1059550. PMCID in process. PMCID in process.  PubMed. Full Code.

J. Michael McWilliams, Michael L. Barnett, Eric T. Roberts, Pasha Hamed, and Ateev Mehrotra. Did Hospital Readmissions Fall Because Per Capita Admission Rates Fell? Health Aff (Millwood). 2019 Nov;38(11):1840-1844. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2019.00411. PMCID: PMC6890374. PubMed. Full Code.

Andrew D. Wilcock, Michael L. Barnett, J. Michael McWilliams, David C. Grabowski, Ateev Mehrotra. Association Between Medicare’s Mandatory Joint Replacement Bundled Payment Program and Post–Acute Care Use in Medicare Advantage. JAMA Surg. 2019 Oct 2. doi: 10.1001/jamasurg.2019.3957. [Epub ahead of print].  PMCID: PMC6777232. PubMed. Full Code.

J. Michael McWilliams, Bruce. E. Landon, Vinay K. Rathi, Michael E. Chernew. Getting More Savings From ACOs - Can the Pace be Pushed? N Engl J Med. 2019 Jun 6;380(23):2190-2192. doi: 10.1056/NEJMp1900537. PMCID: PMC6624070. PubMed.

Brian E. McGarry, Timothy J. Layton, David C. Grabowski. The Effects of Plan Payment Rates on the Market for Medicare Advantage Dual-Eligible Special Needs Plan. Health Serv Res. 2019 Oct;54(5):1137-1145. doi: 10.1111/1475-6773.13170. Epub 2019 May 20. PMCID: PMC6736914. PubMed. Full Code.

Rudy Douven, Ron van der Heijden Thomas McGuire and Erik Schut. Premium Levels and Demand Response in Health Insurance:  Relative Thinking and Zero-Price Effects. J Econ Behav Organ Available online 16 March 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.02.030.

Michael Geruso and Timothy J. Layton. Upcoding or Selection? Evidence from Medicare on Squishy Risk Adjustment. Journal of Political Economy (Accepted). NIHMSID 1007327. PMCID in process.

Joseph P. Newhouse, Mary Price, J. Michael McWilliams, John Hsu, Jeff Souza, and Bruce L. Landon, “Adjusted Mortality Rates in Medicare Advantage Are Lower Than Traditional Medicare But Over Time the Two Rates Converge,” Health Affairs, April 2019, 38(4):554-60. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2018.05390. PMID: 30933606. PMCID: PMC6555557. PubMed. Full Code.

Lina Song, Xavier García-Albéniz, Miguel A. Hernán, Joseph P. Newhouse, John Hsu. Changes in screening colonoscopy following Medicare reimbursement and cost-sharing changes: estimates using different lenses. Health Serv Res. 2019 Aug;54(4):839-850. doi: 10.1111/1475-6773.13150. Epub 2019 Apr 2. PMCID: PMC6606542. PubMedFull Code.

Joseph P. Newhouse, Mary Beth Landrum, Mary Price, J. Michael McWilliams, John Hsu and Thomas G. McGuire. The Comparative Advantage of Medicare Advantage. Am J Health Econ Spring 2019, 5(2):281-301. PMCID: PMC6481953. PubMed. Full Code.

Lidia M. V. R. Moura, Jason R. Smith, Deborah Blacker, Christine Vogeli, Lee H. Schwamm, Andrew J. Cole, Sonia Hernandez-Diaz, John Hsu. Epilepsy Among Elderly Medicare Beneficiaries: A Validated Approach to Identify Prevalent and Incident Epilepsy. Med Care. 2019 Apr;57(4):318-324. doi: 10.1097/MLR.0000000000001072. PMCID: PMC6417929. PubMed. Full Code.

Vinay K. Rathi, J. Michael McWilliams. First-Year Report Cards From the Merit-Based Incentive Payment System (MIPS): What Will Be Learned and What Next? JAMA. Published online March 4, 2019. doi:10.1001/jama.2019.1295. PMID: 30830150. PubMed.

Lidia M. V. R. Moura, Jason R. Smith, Deborah Blacker, Christine Vogeli, Lee H. Schwamm, John Hsu. Medicare Claims Can Identify Post-Stroke Epilepsy. Epilepsy Res. 2019 Mar;151:40-47. doi: 10.1016/j.eplepsyres.2019.02.002. Epub 2019 Feb 8. PMC6640134. PubMed. Full Code.

Bruce. E. Landon. A Step Toward Protecting Payments for Primary Care. N Engl J Med. 2019 Feb 7;380(6):507-510. doi: 10.1056/NEJMp1810848. PMCID: PMC6442455. PubMed.

Michael L. Barnett, Andrew Wilcock, J. Michael McWilliams, Arnold M. Epstein, Karen E. Joynt Maddox, E. John Orav, David C. Grabowski, Ateev Mehrotra. Two-Year Evaluation of Mandatory Bundled Payments for Joint Replacement. N Engl J Med. 2019 Jan 17;380(3):252-262. doi: 10.1056/NEJMsa1809010. Epub 2019 Jan 2. PMCID: PMC6504974. PubMed. Full Code.

Aaron L. Schwartz, Anupam B. Jena, Alan M. Zaslavsky, J. Michael McWilliams. Analysis of Physician Variation in Provision of Low-Value Services. JAMA Intern Med. 2019 Jan 1;179(1):16-25. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2018.5086. PMCID: PMC6583417. PubMed. Full Code.

2018

Alyssa Bilinski, Laura A. Hatfield. Seeking Evidence of Absence: Reconsidering Tests of Model Assumptions. 2018 [updated 2018; cited]; 8/21/2018: [Available from: https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.03273].

Renuka Tipirneni, Ishani Ganguli, John Z Ayanian, Kenneth M Langa. Reducing disparities in healthy aging through an enhanced Medicare annual wellness visit. Public Pol Aging Report, pry048, https://doi.org/10.1093/ppar/pry048.

Savannah L. Bergquist, Thomas G. McGuire, Timothy J. Layton, and Sherri Rose. Medicare Risk Adjustment with Systematically Missing Data. Health Serv Res. 2018 Dec;53(6):4204-4223. doi: 10.1111/1475-6773.13046. Epub 2018 Sep 11. PMCID: PMC6232496. PubMed. Full Code.

Jamie R. Daw, Laura A. Hatfield. Matching in difference-in-differences: between a rock and a hard place. Health Serv Res. 2018 Dec;53(6):4111-4117. doi: 10.1111/1475-6773.13017. Epub 2018 Jul 25. PMCID: PMC6232434. PubMed.

Jamie R. Daw, Laura A. Hatfield. Matching and Regression to the Mean in Difference-in-Differences Analysis. Health Serv Res. 2018 Dec;53(6):4138-4156. doi: 10.1111/1475-6773.12993. Epub 2018 Jun 29. PMCID: PMC6232412. PubMed. Full Code.

Eric T. Roberts, Alan M. Zaslavsky, Michael L. Barnett, Bruce E. Landon, Lin Ding, J. Michael McWilliams. Assessment of the Effect of Adjustment for Patient Characteristics on Hospital Readmission Rates: Implications for Pay for Performance. JAMA Intern Med. 2018 Nov 1;178(11):1498-1507. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2018.4481. PMCID: PMC6248207. PubMed. Full Text. Full Code.

Lauren G. Gilstrap, Haiden A. Huskamp, David G. Stevenson, Michael E. Chernew, David C. Grabowski, J. Michael McWilliams. Changes In End-Of-Life Care In The Medicare Shared Savings Program. Health Aff (Millwood). 2018 Oct;37(10):1693-1700. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2018.0491. PMCID: PMC6233308. PubMed. Full Code.

J. Michael McWilliams, Laura A. Hatfield, Bruce E. Landon, Pasha Hamed, Michael E. Chernew. Medicare Spending after 3 Years of the Medicare Shared Savings Program. N Engl J Med. 2018 Sep 20;379(12):1139-1149. doi: 10.1056/NEJMsa1803388. Epub 2018 Sep 5. PMCID: PMC6269647. PubMed. Full Code.

Timothy J. Layton, Thomas G. McGuire, Richard C. van Kleef. Deriving Risk Adjustment Payment Weights to Maximize Efficiency of Health Insurance Markets. J Health Econ. 2018 Sep;61:93-110. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2018.07.001. Epub 2018 Jul 23. PMCID: PMC6471663. PubMed. Full Code.

Julius L. Chen, Michael E. Chernew, and Andrew L. Hicks. Prices for Physician Services in Medicare Advantage versus Traditional Medicare.  Am J Manag Care. 2018 Jul;24(7):341-344. PMCID: PMC6053627. PubMed. Full Code.

Michael M. Barnett, J. Michael McWilliams. Changes in Specialty Care Use and Leakage in Medicare Accountable Care. Am J Manag Care. 2018 May 1;24(5):e141-e149. PMCID: PMC5986093. PubMed. Full Code.

Eric T. Roberts, Laura A. Hatfield, J. Michael McWilliams, Sule Gerovich, Michael E. Chernew, Lauren G. Gilstrap, Done, Ateev Mehrotra. Changes in Hospital Utilization Three Years into Maryland’s Global Budget Program for Rural Hospitals. Health Aff (Millwood). 2018 Apr;37(4):644-653. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2018.0112. PMCID: PMC5993431. PubMed. Full Code.

Bruce E. Landon, Alan M. Zaslavsky, Jeffrey Souza and John Z. Ayanian. Trends in Diabetes Treatment and Monitoring Among Medicare Beneficiaries. J Gen Intern Med. 2018 Feb 9. doi: 10.1007/s11606-018-4310-4. [Epub ahead of print]. PMCID: PMC5880782. PubMed. Full Code.

Eric T. Roberts, J. Michael McWilliams, Laura A. Hatfield, Sule Gerovich, Michael E. Chernew, Lauren G. Gilstrap, Ateev Mehrotra. Changes in Health Care Use Associated with the Introduction of Hospital Global Budgets in Maryland. JAMA Intern Med. 2018 Feb 1;178(2):260-268. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2017.7455. PMCID: PMC5838791. PubMed. Full Code.

Ishani Ganguli, Jeffrey Souza, J. Michael McWilliams, Ateev Mehrotra. Practices caring for the underserved are less likely to adopt Medicare’s annual wellness visit. Health Aff (Millwood). 2018 Feb;37(2):283-291. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2017.1130. PMCID: PMC6080307. PubMed. Full Code.

Aaron L. Schwartz, Alan M. Zaslavsky, Bruce E. Landon, Michael E. Chernew, J. Michael McWilliams. Low-Value Service Use in Provider Organizations. Health Serv Res. 2018 Feb;53(1):87-119. doi: 10.1111/1475-6773.12597. Epub 2016 Nov 10. PMCID: PMC5785325. PubMed. Full Code.

Eric T. Roberts, Alan M. Zaslavsky, J. Michael McWilliams. The Value-Based Payment Modifier: Program Outcomes and Implications for Disparities. Ann Intern Med. 2018 Feb 20;168(4):255-265. doi: 10.7326/M17-1740. Epub 2018 Nov 28. [Epub ahead of print]. PMCID: PMC5820192. PubMed. Full Code.

2017

Joseph P. Newhouse.  Risk adjustment with an outside option. J Health Econ. 2017 Dec;56:256-258. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2017.01.001. PMCID: PMC5739068. PubMed.

Jacob Glazer, Thomas G. McGuire. Paying Medicare Advantage plans: To level or tilt the playing field. J Health Econ. 2017 Dec;56:281-291. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2016.12.004. Epub 2016 Dec 29. PMCID: PMC5548660. PubMed.

Thomas G. McGuire, Richard C. Van Kleef. Introduction to the special section health plan payment in regulated competition. J Health Econ. 2017 Dec;56:234-236. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2017.09.007. Epub 2017 Sep 15. PMCID: PMC5899416. PubMed.

J. Michael McWilliams, Michael E. Chernew, Bruce E. Landon. Medicare ACO Program Savings Not Tied To Preventable Hospitalizations Or Concentrated Among High-Risk Patients. Health Aff (Millwood). 2017 Dec;36(12):2085-2093. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2017.0814. PMCID: PMC5762118. PubMed. Full Code.

Bruce E. Landon, Robert E. Mechanic. The Paradox of Coding — Policy Concerns Raised by Risk-Based Provider Contracts. N Engl J Med. 2017 Sep 28;377(13):1211-1213. doi: 10.1056/NEJMp1708084. PMID: 28953441. PubMed. Not Peer Reviewed.

J. Michael McWilliams, Mehdi Nejafzadeh, William H. Shrank, Jennifer M. Polinski. Association of Changes in Medication Use and Adherence With Accountable Care Organization Exposure in Patients With Cardiovascular Disease or Diabetes. JAMA Cardiol. 2017 Sep 1;2(9):1019-1023. doi: 10.1001/jamacardio.2017.2172. PMCID: PMC5710170. PubMed. Full Code.

Ishani Ganguli, Jeffrey Souza, J. Michael McWilliams, Ateev Mehrotra. Trends in Use of the US Medicare Annual Wellness Visit, 2011-2014. JAMA. 2017 Jun 6;317(21):2233-2235. doi: 10.1001/jama.2017.4342. PMCID: PMC5815054. PubMed. Full Code.

J. Michael McWilliams. MACRA — Big Fix or Big Problem? Ann Intern Med. 2017 Jul 18;167(2):122-124. doi: 10.7326/M17-0230. Epub 2017 May 16. PMCID: PMC5513746. PubMed.

David C. Grabowski, Nina R. Joyce, Thomas G. McGuire, and Richard G. Frank. Passive Enrollment Of Dual-Eligible Beneficiaries Into Medicare And Medicaid Managed Care Has Not Met Expectations. Health Aff (Millwood). 2017 May 1;36(5):846-854. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2016.1082. PMCID: PMC5665685. PubMed. Full Code.

Lidia M. V. R. Moura, Maggie Price, Andrew J. Cole Daniel B. Hoch, John Hsu. Accuracy of claims-based algorithms for epilepsy research in the US population. Epilepsia 2017; 58: 683-91. doi: 10.1111/epi.13691. Epub 2017 Feb 15. PMID: 28199007. NIHMSID:1016317. PMCID in process. PubMed. Full Text. Full Code.

Bruce E. Landon, Tipping the Scale — The Norms Hypothesis and Primary Care Physician Behavior. N Engl J Med. 2017 Mar 2;376(9):810-811. doi: 10.1056/NEJMp1510923. PMID: 28249130. PubMed. Not Peer Reviewed.

J. Michael McWilliams and Aaron L. Schwartz. Focusing on high-cost patients: the key to addressing high costs? N Engl J Med. 2017 Mar 2;376(9):807-809. doi: 10.1056/NEJMp1612779. PMCID: PMC5503135. PubMed.

J. Michael McWilliams, Lauren G. Gilstrap, David G, Stevenson, Michael E. Chernew, Haiden A. Huskamp, David C. Grabowski. Changes in Postacute Care in the Medicare Shared Savings Program. JAMA Intern Med. 2017 Apr 1;177(4):518-526. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2016.9115. PMCID: PMC5415671. PubMed. Full Code.

Hannah T. Neprash, Michael E. Chernew and J. Michael McWilliams. Little Evidence Exists To Support The Expectation That Providers Would Consolidate To Enter New Payment Models. Health Aff (Millwood). 2017 Feb 1;36(2):346-354. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2016.0840. PMCID: PMC5458639. PubMed. Full Code.

Xavier García-Albéniz, John Hsu, Michael Bretthauer, Miguel A. Hernán. Screening Colonoscopy to Prevent Colorectal Cancer Among Medicare Beneficiaries Aged 70 to 79 Years. Ann Intern Med. 2017 May 16;166(10):758-759. doi: 10.7326/L17-0138. PMID: 28505646. PubMed. Full Text.

Xavier García-Albéniz, John Hsu, Michael Bretthauer, Miguel A. Hernán. Effectiveness of Screening Colonoscopy to Prevent Colorectal Cancer Among Medicare Beneficiaries Aged 70 to 79 Years: A Prospective Observational Study. Ann Intern Med. 2017 Jan 3;166(1):18-26. doi: 10.7326/M16-0758. Epub 2016 Sep 27. PMCID: PMC5417337. PubMed. Full Code.

Mike Geruso, Tim J. Layton. Selection in Health Insurance Markets and Its Policy Remedies. J Econ Perspect. 2017;31(4):23-50. PMID: 29465215. PubMed. Not Peer Reviewed.

2016

J. Michael McWilliams. Cost Containment and the Tale of Care Coordination. N Engl J Med. 2016 Dec 8;375(23):2218-2220. PMCID: PMC5506340. PubMed.

J. Michael McWilliams. Changes in Medicare Shared Savings Program savings from 2013 to 2014. JAMA. 2016 Oct 25;316(16):1711-1713. doi: 10.1001/jama.2016.12049. PMCID: PMC5083197. PubMed. Full Code.

 J. Michael McWilliams. Savings From ACOs-Building on Early Success. Ann Intern Med. 2016 Dec 20;165(12):873-875. doi: 10.7326/M16-1846. Epub 2016 Oct 11. PMCID: PMC5237631. PubMed.

Lidia M. V. R. Moura, Thiago S. Carneiro, Andrew J. Cole, John Hsu, Barbara G. Vickrey, and Daniel B. Hoch. Association between addressing antiseizure drug side effects and patient-reported medication adherence in epilepsy. Patient Prefer Adherence. 2016 Oct 31;10:2197-2207. eCollection 2016. PMCID: PMC5096772. PubMed. Full Code

J. Michael McWilliams, Laura A. Hatfield, Michael E. Chernew, Bruce E. Landon, Aaron L. Schwartz. Early Performance of Accountable Care Organizations in Medicare. N Engl J Med. 2016 Jun 16;374(24):2357-66. doi: 10.1056/NEJMsa1600142. Epub 2016 Apr 13. PMCID: PMC4963149. PubMed.

John Hsu, Mary Price, Jenna Spirt, Christine Vogeli, Richard Brand, Michael E. Chernew, Sreekanth K. Chaguturu, Namita Mohta, Eric Weil and Timothy Ferris. Patient Population Loss At A Large Pioneer Accountable Care Organization And Implications For Refining The Program. Health Aff (Millwood). 2016 Mar;35(3):422-30. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2015.0805. PMCID: PMC5875694. PubMed.

Michael Geruso, Thomas G. McGuire. Tradeoffs in the design of health plan payment systems: Fit, power and balance. J Health Econ. 2016 May;47:1-19. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2016.01.007. Epub 2016 Feb 10. PMCID: PMC4836985. PubMed.

Sherri Rose, Alan M. Zaslavsky, J. Michael McWilliams. Variation In Accountable Care Organization Spending And Sensitivity To Risk Adjustment: Implications For Benchmarking. Health Aff (Millwood). 2016 Mar;35(3):440-8. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2015.1026. PMCID: PMC5436972. PubMed.

2015

Michael M. Barnett, John Hsu, J. Michael McWilliams. Patient Characteristics and Differences in Hospital Readmission Rates. JAMA Intern Med. 2015 Nov; 175(11):1803-12. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2015.4660. PMCID: PMC4991542. PubMed.

Aaron L. Schwartz, Michael E. Chernew, Bruce E. Landon, J. Michael McWilliams. Changes in Low-Value Services in Year 1 of the Medicare Pioneer Accountable Care Organization Program. JAMA Intern Med. 2015 Nov;175(11):1815-25. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2015.4525. PMCID: PMC4928485. PubMed.

Anna D. Sinaiko, Robert Zeckhauser. Medicare Advantage: what explains its robust health? Am J Manag Care. 2015 Nov;21(11):804-6. PMID: 26633253. Not Peer Reviewed. PubMedFull Text.

Katherine Baicker, Jacob A. Robbins. Medicare Payments and System-Level Health Care Use:  The Spillover Effects of Medicare Managed Care. J Health Econ. 2015 Fall;1(4):399-431. Epub 2015 Oct 16. PMCID: PMC4813814. PubMed. Full Text.

Chris C. Afendulis, Anna D. Sinaiko, Richard G. Frank. Dominated choices and Medicare Advantage enrollment. J Econ Behav Organ. 2015 Nov 1;119:72-83. PMCID: PMC4553698. PubMed. Full Text.

Bruce E. Landon, Alan M. Zaslavsky, Robert Saunders, L. Gregory Pawlson, Joseph P. Newhouse, John Z. Ayanian. A comparison of relative resource use and quality in Medicare Advantage health plans versus traditional Medicare. Am J Manag Care. 2015 Aug;21(8):559-66. PMCID: PMC6365159. PubMed. Full Text.